While many in the media want Americans to believe the 2020 election is all but over and Joe Biden will easily win […] More
While many in the media want Americans to believe the 2020 election is all but over and Joe Biden will easily win the election, a new poll is bad news for the Democratic nominee.
A new poll shows that Biden is lagging behind Hillary Clinton in support among black voters and President Donald Trump has gained significantly among them, Breitbart reported.
A new poll from Zogby shows that Biden is underperforming nationwide with black voters compared to previous Democratic nominees such as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
The poll found only 77 percent of black voters are committed to voting for Biden in the general election.
Around 14 percent of black voters plan to support President Donald Trump and the remaining 9 percent said they were still undecided.
Last week, a model that has arguably the best track record of them all says Trump is in very good shape.If accurate, the numbers pose a major problem for Biden and his party moving into the general election. Most Democrat strategists point to a drop-off in black turnout between 2012 and 2016 as the primary reason for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lost.
During that race, Clinton received 88 percent of the black vote, according to exit polls. Although impressive, the numbers were significantly lower than the 93 percent former President Barack Obama garnered on his way to reelection in 2012.
The drop-off was most significant in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that went narrowly for Trump in that election after having backed Democrats at the presidential level for nearly three decades. For example, data from the Michigan secretary of state’s office indicates Clinton received 75,000 fewer votes in Wayne County—where Detroit is located—than Obama did in 2012. Even though Clinton still won the country by a substantial margin, the decrease in support ensured Clinton lost the state to Trump, who made strong inroads with white working-class voters, by more than 10,000 votes.
Many believe that if black turnout was the same in 2016 as it was in 2012, Clinton would have won the presidency, despite Trump’s populist appeal to blue-collar whites. As such, Democrats are pushing Biden to do everything possible to hit the 2012 margins, starting with tapping a woman of color as his running mate.
The primary model bases its predictions about the general election on turnout and patterns in the primaries.
It’s been around since 1996, and was retroactively applied to the primary data from every election since 1912 -- and it was only wrong twice.
That means this model looked at the primary data from every presidential election dating back to 1912 and it was only wrong about predicting the winner twice.
So who does the model think wins the 2020 election?
It currently shows Trump with a 91 percent chance of winning re-election.