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Feb 13, 2021
The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

March 26, 2020 By Madeline Osburn
British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.
Ferguson’s report from Imperial College, which White House and other officials took seriously, said that if the U.S. and U.K. did not shut down for 18 months, and isolation measures were not taken, “we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months.” His “models” showed overflowing hospitals and ICU beds.

“For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries,” the report reads.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, reportedly said the administration was particularly focused on the Imperial College report’s conclusion that entire households should stay in isolation for 14 days if any member suffered from COVID-19 symptoms.
But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower.

March 16th – The Ferguson Report Is Released​

On March 16th a professor from the Imperial College in London called Neil Ferguson used a mathematical computer model he created in 2009 to estimate the infection rate and death toll of the coronavirus.

You can see his paper was dated 16th march by clicking on the link below:

Only 2 days later he entered “self isolation” having supposedly contracting the coronavirus himself.
This is documented on his own wikipedia page on the link below:

Just for a second consider that we are now weeks into this “outbreak” and the numbers to date say there are 1.3m cases amongst the 7 billion people on earth. That means only 0.01% of the world have coronavirus after 3 weeks. So Ferguson had a 1 in 10,000 chance of being a corona victim based on todays figures….. back then it would have been a 1 in 100,000 chance.
So the man who creates a computer prediction that was used to shut down the entire world within 2 days of his report was the unlucky or unlikely (1 in 100,000) corona victim……. that in itself is very curious don’t you think?

Let’s look at the mathematical odds of this happening in layman terms. It is the equivalent of correctly predicting 3 massive sporting upsets:

  • Leicester winning the premier league 4000/1
  • Buster Douglas beating Mike Tyson 42/1
  • The unknown teenager Boris Becker winning Wimbledon 11/1
  • Then on top of those odds you have to factor in that Ferguson was 1 in 7,000,000,000 people on earth to predict the corona death count and then multiply it by 365 for the days in the year

Curious odds huh?

In his bombshell report he said that he expected 60% of the country to contract the coronavirus and he predicted that the USA would see up to 2.2million deaths and 500,000 for the UK.

This is the type of enormous death toll you would expect from something like Ebola so naturally this raised huge concerns.

Ask Yourself This…….

  • Given the high stakes is it logical to assume that the world would call in the greatest scientific minds in the world?
  • Would you expect them to call government agencies like the Centre For Disease Control (CDC) or the worlds smartest scientist who work in the highest security labs that actually work with lethal viruses?

Would it be logical to spend a few days verifying Ferguson’s theoretical prediction. After all his own wikipedia page states clearly that he specialises in “mathematical modelling” meaning he is a computer nerd who is not involved in frontline viral research and prevention.

Personally I would expect Glaxo Smith Kline and all the huge Pharma companies to be consulted and submitting the best the world has, to double triple and quadruple check that Mr Ferguson was indeed correct with his apocalyptic prediction.

His report clearly stated that he believed we needed to lock the country down for up to 18 months!

18 months of a worldwide shutdown would lead to poverty and starvation on a scale that would kill maybe a few hundred million people….. so the suggestion in its own right was ludicrous unless we are dealing with a virus that spreads like wildfire and kills a massive number of people.

March 20th – USA Shuts Its Borders​

Friday March 20th America shuts its borders to travellers from Europe and shortly after the UK. This immediately threatened to bankrupt the entire worldwide airline industry. Europe shuts its borders and lockdown began.

March 23rd – UK Goes On Full Lockdown

On the back of Fergusons doomsday prediction now two of the worlds largest economies have completely shut down to protect its citizens. Which given the media frenzy and the scientific reports it seemed a reasonable thing to do to save lives. The sheer shock and speed of this news about a far away country (China) suddenly being on your doorstep was shocking and terrifying.

March 25th – Ferguson Retracts His Prediction​

On Wednesday 25th only 9 days after scaring the world into an unprecedented lock down Ferguson drags himself off out of “self isolation” to speak to a parliamentary committee and reveals that he has now readjusted his model and “now feels confident that the death toll in the UK will be below 20,000!”

See for yourself:

So the guy who caused the world to shut down only 9 days before with doomsday figures predicting millions of deaths and saying we need to self isolate and practise social distancing for up to 18 months has now told parliament that he was wrong and the figure he now predicts is below 20,000.

What is astonishing is why this was not being reported on every mainstream media outlet as the biggest governmental cock up in history at this point. Yet we hear virtually nothing and the media continue to spread fear on a scale never seen.

Why Is His Retraction Not The Biggest News In The World​

Can you imagine if it was reported honestly, there would be a national outcry for an enquiry into how they got it so wrong.

  • The compensation law suits from every business in the world would be staggering if the governments admitted that they shut the world down based on a theoretical computer simulation that the creator only 9 days later said he had miscalculated!
  • The millions of small businesses who had by that 9 days already been bankrupted.
  • The loss of jobs and the impact to the economy was already staggering.

The people would demand to know how such rash decisions had been made based on one mans computer simulation!

The Plot Thickens​

Imagine how astonished I was when I went on to the official UK government website to see that on the 19th March (3 days after Fergusons report scared the world) and 4 days before full lockdown was initiated.
The coronavirus had been DOWNGRADED from the high consequence infectious diseases (HCID).

So what is a HCID and why is this so shocking? Let’s look at the definition of HCID.The UK Government Definition of HCID is

  • acute infectious disease
  • typically has a high case-fatality rate
  • may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
  • often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
  • ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
  • requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely

So 4 days before the complete UK lockdown the UK government downgrades coronavirus as

  • Not having a high death rate
  • Not being difficult to recognise
  • Not having an ability to spread in the community
  • Not requiring an enhanced individual and population response

This is stated clearly on the governments own website on the link below

The government statement says:

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.


So this begs the question if the government had downgraded the threat of Corona on the 19th March why the hell did they shut down the economy! It makes no sense!!

Puzzled By This I Delve Deeper​

I began searching everything I could and what I discovered was that the scientific community had openly published doubts about Fergusons predictions.

I went to a New Scientist article that stated that “Oxford Scientists” thought he was wrong on the link below

I am always skeptical of how mainstream media quotes famous colleges as a way to validate a topic, knowing most people cease to delve deeper. The conditioning we all have been subjected to trust titles is crazy. So I click the link about the study that disagreed with Ferguson because i wanted to see if it was credible and it took me to an article on the financial times that was not publicly visible as it need a subscription

So I began digging and the first search “Oxford Coronavirus Research” and I found a brilliant article in the Guardian where an honest reporter states clearly that he was surprised by the decision making process from the beginning and that he was aware of conflicting opinions across the entire scientific community.

Read it here it is a great read

So what peaked my curiosity was that the Guardian article quoted this “Oxford University team led by Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology, pointed out that figures on the morbidity of Covid-19 were virtually meaningless in the absence of testing.”

My first thought was “theoretical epidemiology” this sounds like a nonsense.
So I googled “theoretical epidemiology degree” and I found nothing. There is no such title and no such course you are either an epidemiologist or you are not.

Weird I think… so I search Sunetra Gupta and find her website

I am gobsmacked at what I read and I quote
“Sunetra Gupta is an acclaimed novelist, essayist and scientist. In October 2012 her fifth novel, So Good in Black, was longlisted for the DSC Prize for South Asian Literature. In 2009 she was named as the winner of the Royal Society Rosalind Franklin Award for her scientific achievements. “

Are you bloody kidding me!
This is not to knock Sunetra but the one referenced voice of reason (talking some sense) quoted by a National Newspaper opposing Fergusons madness is a woman who is a novelist writing her 5th book about love affairs between Indian and English couples. Who is titled a “theoretical epidemiologist” working in the ZOOLOGY department at her university!

So I dig further and see that she has wrote a book about pandemics on amazon….. you literally could not make this stuff up!

So I dig further seeing she has won a fancy sounding award called the Royal Society Rosalind Franklin Award for her scientific achievements.

It becomes clear to anyone reading it that this is not a serious science award because when you click on the past winners link it takes you to this page

That all the past winners are women who have agreed to use the award to help promote science to woman.

So let’s recap for clarity

  • We have a guy with a faulty computer model that scares the world into shutdown
  • The most notable person opposing it and quoted in the mainstream media is a “theoretical” scientist with a passion for writing novels and has never done anything of note that actually cures viruses.


Do we not expect the greatest most experienced scientific minds on the frontline and cutting edge of the most dangers viruses to be calling the shots….. not theoretical nobodies!!!

It is astonishing and then you question why are professional seasoned journalists with national publications not doing the basic research you can see took me at most 5 google searches.

So I dig a little further and pull up her most recent submitted scientific study and you do not need to be a genius to read its introduction to see its theoretical waffle.

Postulating if a community got exposed to a highly contagious and low contagious virus that some weird immunity is created….. theoretical drivel that cannot and will not ever be proved one way or the other!

Do We Not Expect Better In A Crisis?​

Look at it this way, you have been rapidly forced to cease working in your family business or job with no consultation and no right to say no. A government ruling has stopped you from being able to support yourself financially or your employees. You have effectively been placed under house arrest and told you cannot go out and freely walk. You cannot be in close proximity to others or risk being fined by the police.

At record speed you have had all of your rights as a person taken from you and because it happened so fast and the media made it so scary you didn’t even have chance to question it or be pissed off.

  • Lives are at risk
  • Pensions are at risk
  • Stock markets at risk
  • Life savings are at risk
  • Bankruptcy brought to your door through no fault of your own
  • Jobs are lost

The stakes could not be higher and we have a couple of theoretical modellers running the show and dictating the future of everyone.

Then once they are proved wrong it is not reported and the actions taken are maintained and unchanged!

Now Let’s Look At The Cost Of This Decision​

The decision to shut the world down based on clearly unreliable data has caused a financial shockwave that we can never recover from. Don’t trust me on this trust mainstream media on one of the few articles speaking the truth.

Trump has been forced to get the Federal Reserve to print $6 trillion dollars to pay Americans to stay home so that they can feed themselves during the shutdown and the rest is going to banks / airlines and other too big to fail companies.

Printing $6 Trillion has almost doubled the entire money supply for the United States and by printing that much they have devalued the buying power of the dollar which effects every country in the world.

This cannot ever be recovered and the world is now bankrupt…… so just for a second think about the consequences of this.

  • Businesses will close on a scale never witnessed in history
  • Hundreds of millions of jobs will be lost
  • Suicide rates through financial pressure will eclipse the coronavirus death toll
  • Poverty will be rampant
  • As much as 60% of the world will be unemployed
  • Life’s changed beyond measure in the billions

Now let’s look at the medical impact​

So across the world millions of patients have had their operations cancelled so the hospitals can be prepared for the pandemic. This means millions of cancer patients and heart disease patients and many other life threatening conditions are now no longer going to receive life saving treatment and die…….
This total will far exceed the “pandemic” totals

The Stats Do Not Add Up​

The image below shows real stats taken from this website


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